There’s much debate over whether the short holiday season in 2024 is a good or a bad thing for retailers. On the glass-half-empty side, the fact that there are only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year seems likely to make the annual festive rush for gift shopping even more hectic and high-stress than usual.

But for those looking for the positives, the short run-in to Christmas could spell good news for physical stores. With consumers not wanting to take the risk of online purchases being delivered on time, December could see a timely spike in festive footfall.

Shorter peak seasons are unpredictable

What retailers fear most about a condensed peak season is the increased unpredictability of consumer behaviour. With less time to plan and panic creeping in as the days tick by, shoppers are more likely to buy on the fly with their gut rather than their head.

An anything-goes approach to holiday spending can result in more cash being splashed as consumers throw caution to the wind. But the problem is knowing exactly where those dollars will be spent. A sudden rush on certain items can leave retailers hard-pressed to replenish inventory. Similarly, there is less time to respond to trends as they emerge. Marketing can easily descend into a free-for-all just to get your deals and promotions – any deals and promotions – in the front of eyes in time for people to buy. It’s hard to maintain composure and strategic discipline when the clock is ticking.

When up to a third of your annual sales are on the line in the run-up to Christmas, it’s understandable that few retailers want to leave success to chance. That’s why the ‘holiday season’ in retail terms keeps starting earlier and earlier, with promotions and sales events now starting a month or more before Black Friday. Even when Thanksgiving doesn’t fall so late in November, the run-in to Christmas thereafter just isn’t long enough for most retailers to feel confident about hitting their audiences and driving the sales they need.

Consumers seem to be in agreement that more time means more prizes. According to a survey from Gartner earlier this year, 32% of Americans start their holiday shopping as early as July!

Stores win out when impulse takes over

One caveat to the above is that the artificial lengthening of the holiday season for retail purposes is very much an online trend, driven by the fiercely competitive nature of online commerce. Stores tend not to see any significant increase in footfall until Black Friday – just like old times.

Half of US consumers told an Experian survey that they will head to stores to do their Christmas shopping this year, either instead of or as well as online. Emarketer forecasts that in-store holiday sales will rise 3.7% versus last year. That could well result from a tilt away from online shopping towards in-store once Cyber Monday is over, which actually falls in December this year. Consumers will already be thinking about Christmas delivery dates by the time the Cyber Five is finished. That’s likely to mean less separation than usual between Black Friday and Christmas purchases. People will be looking to make more planned big-ticket gift purchases over Black Friday weekend with Christmas feeling so close.

After that, with just 22 shopping days left to the big day, people will be acutely aware of the ticking clock – less time to browse, delivery deadlines looming. The deeper we go into December, online shopping will start to lose its allure of convenience. The certainty of knowing exactly what’s in stock, and walking away with it there and then, will make stores look more and more appealing.

Physical retailers can capitalize by leaning heavily into impulse gift purchases in their merchandising, pricing and promotions. But it will be equally important to get the experience right. People might look for the certainties of in-store shopping the closer we get to Christmas, but they won’t be prepared to sacrifice convenience. Long queues will put people off all but the most essential purchases. Or make them resolve to stick to online next year.

So, store owners, give yourselves the best present you can this Christmas. Plan for higher transaction volumes through your checkouts. Get your staff roster right, run maintenance checks on your POS systems, check your WiFi and payment consoles are in optimum working order. Happy holidays!